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Changes in the ecological suitability of West Nile virus in Europe

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Past and present ecological suitability estimated for each administrative unit are based on both the reconstructions of the historical climate (a) and a counterfactual baseline (b). Ecological suitability values are averaged over the estimates of 10 independent boosted regression tree (BRT) models trained on present-day data. Under factual climate conditions (a), model simulations show clear increases in West Nile virus ecological suitability in European regions, including northern Italy, the Carpathian Mountains, the lowlands in Hungary and eastern Romania, and the Aegean region in eastern Greece. (Source: Erazo D, Grant L, Ghisbain G, et al. Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe. Nat Commun 2024;15[1]:1196. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International [CC BY 4.0] license, creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.)